Luxury Home Sales Well Ahead of 2025
Arizona’s luxury real estate market is setting records. It is also showing just how important pricing and negotiation can be.
I have been tracking three segments of the luxury market for several years: homes selling for $3 million or more, $10 million or more, and $14 million or more.
August has been noticeably slower
As of August 30, another 59 homes have sold for $3 million or more this month. That brings the 2026 total to 785 sales.
Through July, that market had been averaging roughly 104 sales per month. After August, the average has dropped to about 98 per month.
But move farther up the price range and something very different is happening.
There have now been 53 sales at $10 million or more in 2026.
The previous annual record was 33, set last year.
We have already exceeded it by 20 sales.
At $14 million or more, 17 homes have sold this year. The previous record was 15, also set last year.
So this is unquestionably an active year at the very top of the market.
But there is another side to those numbers.
The average sale-to-list price for homes selling above $10 million is currently about 94%. Above $14 million, it is about 95%.
And averages do not tell the whole story.
There have been individual transactions this year where the difference between the asking price and the eventual sale price was measured in millions of dollars.
That does not necessarily mean the seller made a mistake. There can be a lot behind an individual transaction that the final numbers do not tell us.
What it does show is that record sales activity does not eliminate price discovery or negotiation.
That matters whether you are buying or selling.
At this level, looking at a broad headline about the housing market is not enough. I want to know what is actually for sale, what is going under contract, what has closed, how long it took, where it was originally priced, and where the buyer and seller ultimately agreed.
Because on a $10 million, $15 million, or $20 million property, understanding those details can translate into a very significant amount of money.
That is the part of the luxury market I find most interesting right now.