Metro Phoenix Housing Market Enters Extreme Buyer’s Territory While Prices Hold Steady

September 2026 recap | October 2, 2026

September’s sales numbers look fairly steady. A few more single family detached homes sold through the MLS in Maricopa County, and average prices barely moved. The current days-on-market reading also improved.

But look at how many homes are still waiting for buyers.

Inventory increased by nearly 1,500 homes, while the number under contract fell by about 500. That pushed the Supply / Demand Ratio to 26.26%, below the 30% threshold for an extreme buyer’s market used in this report.

Buyers have more homes to choose from. Sellers have more homes to compete with.

That is a meaningful change, even while closing prices hold steady. September’s closings reflect agreements made earlier. The current inventory and contract numbers show the competition facing people buying and selling now.

For a seller, the practical question is how the home compares with the other choices a buyer has today. Price, condition, and terms all come into that decision.

Borrowing costs are another part of the picture. The monthly averages in the chart smooth over a sharp increase near the end of September.

The national 30-year fixed mortgage benchmark reached 7.28% on October 1, its highest in nearly three years. The 10-year Treasury yield reached 5.29% on September 30, its highest in 24 years.

A buyer can have more homes to choose from and still have trouble making the monthly payment work. Higher rates make the same purchase more expensive to finance. To me, that helps explain the pressure on buyer demand.

Then Friday morning brought some encouraging news for the rate outlook.

The jobs report showed just 29,000 jobs added in September, compared with roughly 90,000 expected. Earlier months were revised lower, and wage growth cooled.

That gave markets less reason to expect another immediate Fed hike. By Friday morning, the market-implied chance of an increase at the October 28 meeting had fallen to about 14%, compared with nearly 70% earlier in the week.

That is welcome news for the near-term rate outlook. The change is in expectations about another Fed hike, while mortgage rates still respond to the bond market.

In October, I’ll be watching whether any relief in borrowing costs leads to more homes going under contract. With more homes for sale, that would be a sign that buyer activity is starting to catch up with the growing inventory.