What the numbers say

At three million and above, 644 homes have already sold in the first half of the year. That is the same number that sold in all of 2023, reached now in half the time. If the first-half pace holds, the year annualizes to roughly 1,288 closings, comfortably beyond the 878 that made 2025 the strongest year this segment has recorded. Inventory here is being absorbed faster than it is arriving. Years of supply have compressed from about 0.89 in 2025 to roughly 0.52 so far this year.

At ten million and above, the move is sharper. 43 homes have sold through June. That already exceeds every full year this segment has ever posted, including the 33 that closed in all of 2025. At the current pace the year points toward about 86 closings, more than double the prior record. Supply has moved the same direction, with years of supply falling from about 2.99 in 2025 to roughly 0.88 now.

At fourteen million and above, where a handful of sales defines an entire year, 14 homes have already closed in six months, all but matching the 15 that closed in the whole of 2025. The clearest measure of the shift is supply. As recently as 2023, this segment carried about fifteen years of supply. Today it carries a little over one. A part of the market once defined by long holding times and slow absorption is now clearing at a rate that would have been hard to picture three years ago.

None of this moves in isolation. The Arizona Luxury Housing Market has always tracked the stock market and Bitcoin more closely than it tracks mortgage rates, and both have given the high end a supportive backdrop this year. Equities have been setting records, and while Bitcoin sits below last year’s peak, it remains above the levels that in past cycles lined up with new records at the highest price points. Which of the two is doing more of the work is a fair question. What the closings show is real demand rather than speculation.

These are first-half figures, and the strongest selling months fall inside that window, so the pace is a trajectory rather than a guarantee. Even read conservatively, all three tiers are selling in greater numbers than in any prior year while the inventory that used to sit is clearing.

Something worth knowing right now

If reading these numbers makes you want to see the homes behind them, I put together a flipbook called Inside Arizona’s Luxury Homes. It holds video tours of homes from three million to twenty million, along with market updates and a look at homes still under construction. You can page through it here: https://publuu.com/flip-book/819637/2430037

The bottom line

The evidence at every level points the same way. Homes are selling faster and in greater numbers than in any year on record, and the supply that used to define these price points is thinning. Values at the highest tiers are being held up by genuine demand, the choice that recent years offered is quietly narrowing, and a well-priced, well-presented home is finding a buyer while an overpriced one still waits. I track current inventory, what is coming, and what is selling across all three tiers, and I am glad to talk through what it means for a specific home or a specific price point. Call or text Michael Hankerson directly at 602-770-7205.