A look into Luxury 9-11-2025

A Look into Luxury – September 11, 2025

2025 is shaping up to be another record year for homes priced at $3 million and above, with an average of more than 70 sales per month. Since the general housing market in Metro Phoenix is struggling (click here to read the full story), I wanted to see if the Luxury Housing Market was facing the same challenges. To get a clear picture, I reviewed four key metrics:

  • Sale Price to List Price Ratio
  • Days on Market
  • Number of Canceled or Expired Listings
  • Average Sale Price

I compared these figures from August 2025 to January 2025, and then to the years 2024, 2023, 2022, and 2021.

 2021202220232024Jan-25Aug-25
Sale Price /List Price95%96%94%96%96%94%
Days on Market2228911077134143
Canceled / Expired315487673898 738
Average Sale Price Jan$4,474,012$4,795,953$5,077,498$4,738,921$5,016,102$4,477,669

Key Takeaways

2021 was a pivotal year for luxury home sales in Arizona. The number of sales more than doubled, jumping from 305 in 2020 to 658 in 2021. Interestingly, while the average days on market was high at 222 and the sale-to-list price ratio stood at 95%, the number of canceled or expired listings was less than half of what we are seeing this year.

Looking at 2025 alone, the comparison between January and August is telling. The sale-to-list price ratio slipped by 2%, the days on market increased by nine, and the average sale price declined by more than $500,000. So, while 2025 is still on pace to be another record-breaking year for Arizona luxury sales, the segment is facing some headwinds.

Market Outlook

When tracking luxury home sales at three levels—$3 million and above, $10 million and above, and $14 million and above, the market remains very strong across all categories. Inventory is down significantly from earlier this year, with 738 homes expiring or being canceled. I expect inventory to rise as temperatures cool and seasonal visitors return.

Unlike the broader market, the luxury sector is more closely tied to the stock market and Bitcoin than to interest rates. With both performing extremely well, I anticipate 2025 will finish as another strong year for luxury home sales in Arizona.

If you have any questions, please feel free to reach out by phone, text or email:

Michael Hankerson PLLC

Attention New Home Builders

Have you thought about starting your own real estate brokerage to gain greater control over the sales process and reduce overhead, but were concerned about the challenges of compliance, MLS access, and managing agents?

You might want to consider partnering with us. Our marketing department can help elevate your brand by using our DBA Luxury Division, allowing you to present as:  Builder Name | Luxury Division

And we will provide the full brokerage infrastructure including MLS, compliance, contracts, onboarding, and agent support, so you can stay focused on building exceptional homes.